The Christian Science Monitor says: The Afghanistan Taliban could win!

According to a new study, the Taliban enjoy a slew of advantages that historically correlate with insurgent success, according to a new study of 89 past and ongoing insurgencies worldwide: Factors that favor the Taliban include receiving sanctuary and support in another country, learning to be more discriminating in targeting their attacks, and fighting a government that is both weak and reliant on direct external support. The historical trends suggest that their weakness would be the possible loss of their Pakistani sanctuary, while the main American vulnerability lies in Hamid Karzai's weak pseudo-democracy. Ben Connable, lead author of "How Insurgencies End", a RAND publication, believes that so-called "Anocracies"rarely win. In rural Helmand, our Marines are focused on building local government from scratch. Still, "anocracies" have traditionally won only about 15 percent of their conflicts with insurgents. The Taliban have learned to discriminate, though UN data appear to challenge that assumption. Surprisingly, most civilian deaths in 2009 were caused by insurgents. Their killing of civilians increased by 41 percent over 2008 levels, while pro-government forces reduced civilian killings by 28 percent.