2012/12/30

Mike Stathis: Solving the Mystery of America's Persistently

High Jobless Rate. In many respects, much if not all of the economic gains made in the United States from the past decade have been wiped out due to Wall Street malfeasance. Looking forward, I expect America to lose at least another decade. While some of the economic turmoil is certainly due to the biggest real estate collapse in US history, a much larger portion is the result of the weak job market, which is likely to persist for a number of years. Although the real estate market appears to have bottomed, you should not expect anything other than a very gradual rise from here. In the absence of bubble conditions, the rate of real estate appreciation generally tracks that of inflation. The biggest lift to the real estate market would come from lasting improvements in the job market. Thus, it's important to identify the real reasons for the persistently high unemployment rate so that adequate solutions can be designed. If the factors accounting for the continued weakness in the labor market are not addressed, America stands a good chance to lose much more than a decade. Establishment economists have offered some ridiculous explanations when trying to account for the high unemployment rate. The purpose of this propaganda is to distract attention away from misguided economic policies, put in place by  America's fascist government. Before we discuss the establishment's explanation of the high jobless rate, let's examine some facts about the US labor market. Since mid 2009, there have been between 3.5 and 6 unemployed Americans for every job opening. This means jobs have been in short supply. This ratio is roughly double what it was in the last recession in 2001. This data reflects, in large part, that job openings are one fourth lower now than they were in the last recovery. In the first 12 months of the so called "recovery" there were 32 million job openings. While this may sound like a large number, it was 10 million fewer openings than the first 12 months of the prior recovery, which was known for being a so called jobless recovery. The shortfall in job openings during the current "recovery" compared to the previous one is widespread. Job openings continue to be small in number in nearly every sector including labor intensive service industries, such as hospitality, entertainment, and accommodation. Layoffs during the early stages of this recovery are comparable to those in the prior recovery, and thus cannot explain the lasting high unemployment rate.     

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