The Economist: Asia: Diplomacy with North Korea!

North Korea's announcement on December 1st that it will attempt for the second time this year to put a rocket into space is likely to have landed like a bombshell on the capitals of South Korea, America, Japan and even China. There have been reports, based on satellite imagery, that a launch was under preparation at the Sohae space center on the west coast, but few were inclined to believe the worst, until they had official notification from Pyongyang. Even in the highly unlikely event that the regime of the young Kim Jong Un were sincere in declaring that the launch, which is scheduled to go off sometime between December 10th and 22nd, is an innocent attempt to put a satellite into orbit, the timing could hardly be more explosive. The technology it takes to push a rocket into space is uncomfortably similar to the technology that could send a nuclear warhead flying on a ballistic missile. The window for the launch, which diplomats in Washington, Seoul and their allies regard as a violation of a UN ban on North Korean nuclear missile tests, overlaps with the first anniversary of the death of Mr Kim's father, Kim Jong II, which is to be marked on December 17th. But it also covers December 19th, when South Korea holds a presidential election in which relations with the North were bound to be a big bone of contention, and on December 16th, Japan, which is always twitchy about the trajectory of North Korean rockets, takes to the polls. The proposed launch will come just weeks after the recent re-election of Barack Obama, and probably scuppers any chance that he will re-engage quickly with the North, a failed launch in April ended hopes of a food aid deal from the Americans, and finally the move coincides with the emergence of China's new leader, Xi Jinping. Only one day earlier, a senior Chinese envoy had visited North Korea on behalf of Mr Xi. Whether or not the missile launch was discussed is not known, but China has long sought to impress on Pyongyang its desire for peace and stability on the peninsula. South Korea was swift to warn its neighbor against what it deems a serious provocation. It is likely to be seen in the south as a misguided attempt to influence the outcome of their tight presidential race.