The Economist: All the president's men and women!

In the months since China implemented its once a decade leadership transition, American policy makers have been watching closely, to see whether changes in personnel might augur any change in Chinese policy toward the United States. As the year of the dragon draws to a close, and Barack Obama busies himself trying to replace many of his most senior officials for his second term, it is China's turn to wonder what his new team means, for what is arguably the world's most important bilateral relationship. Mr Obama's cabinet reshuffle affects three top positions, the secretary of state, secretary of defense, and secretary of the treasury, whose holders must devote a great deal of their time and attention to China. Compared with their American counterparts, analysts in China have much more work, as they try to sort the new scene. In contrast to the figures atop China's black box of a political system, the incoming American officials have left career long paper trails from their many public speeches, press interviews, congressional testimony and legislative votes. Zhu Chenghu, a general in the People's Liberation Army, told state run media that the incoming secretary of state, John Kerry, a former senator and presidential candidate, "will be more moderate" on the issue of China's dispute with Japan over a set of tiny, uninhabited islands in the East China sea. The islands are called the Senkakus by Japan, and the Diaoyus by China. On February 4th, when Mr Kerry replaced Hillary Clinton as America's top ranked diplomat, General Zhu was prompted to remark that the change "represents an opportunity to redirect Washington's course". Wang Dong, the director of the Center for North East Asian Strategic Studies at the Beijing University School of International Studies, agrees. "We know Kerry well. He has a reputation for being moderate and thoughtful, not overly forceful or muscular with his language," Mr Wang says, adding that this marks a contrast with the impression of Mrs Clinton, that tends to be held in China. "If Kerry can put more emphasis on co operation, it will make a big difference." But Mrs Clinton's lack of popularity in China may have as much to do with the content of the message she has borne, as with her style in delivering it.